Council takes a peek at future of the County

Prince Edward County council saw what the County could look like in the future.

Councillors received a presentation Tuesday night on long-term population, housing and employment forecasts and a capital needs assessment report prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Andrew Grunda, of Watson & Associates Economists, presented the findings to be included in the Development Charge Background Study to be issued on Jan. 30.

The report indicates the net migration of residents  from major urban areas including the Greater Golden Horseshoe (including Toronto area), Kingston and Ottawa will be during the next 10 years, followed by a gradual slow down as a larger percentage of the population reaches 75-plus years of age.

Based on the analysis in the 60-page report some highlight conclusions indicate:

* Over the long term, Prince Edward County has moderate population and growth potential, driven by its attractiveness as a retirement/seasonal market destination and its economic development prospects within the “knowledged-based” sectors, the Creative Rural Economy and tourism/recreation sectors;

* The County’s total population (reflecting both permanent and seasonal population) is expected to increase from 31,350 in 2012 to 34,775 in 2032; 39,850 in 2052 and 43,560 by buildout. The County’s permanent population is expected to grow to 27,350 by 2032, 31,325 by 2052 and 34,350 by buildout;

* Over the next 20 years, the County is anticipated to add 2,140 housing units to its housing stock. Over the 2012-2052 buildout periods, the County’s housing stock is expected to increase by 4,420 and 6,015, respectively;

* Over the forecast period, population and housing growth will shift from the rural area to Wellington and Picton by 51 per cent and 23 per cent of County-wide housing growth; compared to 22 per cent for the rural area.

* The County’s employment base is anticipated to grow from 7,745 in 2012 to 9,140 in 2032; 10,565 in 2052 and 11,545 by buildout. The majority of employment growth is forecast to be accommodated within Picton, Wellington and the rural area.

* The anticipated capital needs over the various forecast periods total approximately $132.3 million. The increase in need for service attributable to the anticipated development within the County over the respective planning forecast periods totals $57.1 million (43 per cent).

Approximately $7.3 million (six per cent) of costs could potentially be recovered from future growth beyond the respective planning forecast periods, reflecting oversizing of services. Funding from other sources (e.g. grants) accounts for approximately $11.8 million (20 per cent) of total gross capital needs.
The tax/rate based cost share of the capital needs totals $56.1 million (42 per cent) over the respective planning forecast periods, representing the share of costs attributable to existing developments, increases in level of service and the 10 per cent statuatory deduction for soft services.

Click here for the full report: Report of Watson and Associates PEC Growth and Services