Potential risk for flooding in this year’s spring freshet

Quinte Conservation’s Water Resources department continues to monitor the current and projected weather forecasts that will influence this spring’s freshet.

“With higher-than-normal water content in the snowpack and significant ice coverage across the watershed, these conditions present a potential risk for flooding once thawing occurs,” said Dave Eastcott, Water Resources Technologist.

“Flood risk is predicted using data collected from meteorologic conditions (rainfall and temperature), snow coverage and ground conditions, and river and stream flow. Long-term flood outcomes are difficult to predict; however, as spring approaches and temperatures start to warm, flood forecasting accuracy greatly improves.

“It is expected that this spring will include more precipitation than normal. It is possible that this spring will have a delayed and quick snowmelt causing flooding to occur. A fast melt can also cause ice to break up, mobilize, and jam – causing additional flood concerns. However, if weather conditions persist with daytime highs above zero, and freezing temperatures overnight and without rain – it is unlikely there will be a major flooding event this spring.”

There is currently no imminent flood concern.